Sharjah: Rainfall is likely to be below normal during the June-September 2026 southwest monsoon season across much of South Asia, with the strongest signal over central regions, according to a new seasonal forecast which will help millions of people prepare. A few parts of the north-western, north-eastern, and southern regions are likely to receive normal to above normal rainfall between the May-September monsoon period, according to the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum.
According to Emirates News Agency, temperatures, both maximum daytime and minimum overnight, are expected to be above normal. Advance information about the likely performance of the monsoon underpins planning in climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and renewable energy, including hydropower. It also informs risk management and public health strategies, such as heat-health action plans, in the world's most populous region.
The forum, held in Mal©, Maldives, brought together nine National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in South Asia, namely those from Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. The forecast is based on an analysis of global climate conditions. There is strong consensus among experts that El Ni±o conditions are likely to develop during the 2026 monsoon season. In parallel, the Indian Ocean Dipole, another key climate driver in the region, is expected to move from a neutral to positive phase.
From June through September, the Southwest Monsoon dominates life in much of South Asia, accounting for 75-90% of the annual rainfall in most parts of the region, excepting Sri Lanka and southeastern India. This monsoon replenishes water resources like rivers, lakes, and groundwater, which are vital for irrigation and drinking water supplies. It serves as the lifeblood of national economies, agricultural production, and food security. Below-average monsoon rainfall can trigger food insecurity among vulnerable populations, while heavy monsoon-related rainfall and flooding also cause many casualties each year.