Geneva:The World Trade Organisation (WTO) has updated its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2026, raising it to 3.9 percent from the previous estimate of 1.9 percent in March. This adjustment is attributed to supply chain adjustments and significant investment in artificial intelligence.
According to Emirates News Agency, the WTO also lowered its forecast for commercial services trade growth in 2026, citing conditions in the Middle East. The revised forecast for the growth in the volume of services trade has been adjusted down to 3.3 percent from 4.8 percent in March.
The WTO's report further projects merchandise trade and services trade volumes to grow by 4.1 percent and 6.4 percent, respectively, in 2027. It also forecasts global gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2.6 percent in 2026 and 2.9 percent in 2027.
WTO Director-General Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala stated that these figures "reflect the resilience of trade on the ground." In contrast, WTO Deputy Director-General Johanna Hill emphasized that while the trading system has shown resilience and an ability to recover, it is not necessarily strong. Hill noted that "vulnerabilities remain, and members are working to address them," highlighting the importance of strengthening the multilateral trading system to better equip the global economy to handle future shocks.