Rome: The Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) has released its new forecast for global cereal production in 2025, predicting a record high of 2,961 million tonnes, a 3.5% increase over last year's figures. This optimistic outlook is driven by significant increases in maize output forecasts for Brazil and the United States.
According to Emirates News Agency, the FAO's Cereal Supply and Demand Brief highlights that global production of coarse grains, including maize, is expected to reach 1,601 million tonnes, marking a 5.9% increase from 2024. A notable rise in sorghum output contributes to this upward trend. Conversely, the FAO has revised its world wheat output forecast down to 804.9 million tonnes, still reflecting a 0.8% increase compared to last year, due to lower yield prospects in China and higher yields in the European Union.
World rice production is anticipated to grow by 1.0% to reach a new peak of 555.5 million tonnes. This increase is driven by expansions in Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, and notably Indonesia, offsetting declines in Madagascar, Nepal, the United States, and Thailand.
Total world cereal utilisation in 2025/26 is forecasted to rise to 2,922 million tonnes, a 1.6% increase from the previous year. This growth is partly due to increased use of maize and wheat for animal and aquaculture feed. Additionally, global cereal stocks are expected to expand by 3.7% by the end of 2026, reaching a record high of 898.7 million tonnes, with the global cereal stocks-to-use ratio predicted to hit 30.6% in 2025/26.
The FAO's forecasts also project a 1.4% annual increase in international cereal trade, reaching 493.4 million tonnes. This growth is supported by abundant exportable maize supplies, strong wheat demand from China, Pakistan, the Syrian Arab Republic, and Trkiye, and revised import forecasts for rice in Bangladesh, Ghana, and Guinea-Bissau.